June 9, 2025 – In the intricate web of global economics and national security, a group of seemingly obscure metallic elements has emerged as a central pillar of geopolitical competition: rare earth elements. These materials, deceptively named, are not truly rare in the Earth’s crust; in fact, the most abundant among them, cerium, is more common than copper. The “rarity” stems from the fact that they are rarely found in concentrations high enough to make their extraction economically viable and environmentally less destructive. There are 17 such elements—15 lanthanides, plus yttrium and scandium—each possessing unique magnetic, luminescent, and catalytic properties that make them indispensable for high technology.
These elements are the invisible enablers of our modern world. Neodymium and dysprosium are critical for the powerful permanent magnets found in electric vehicle motors, wind turbines, and even the tiny components that make your smartphone vibrate or its speakers work. Lanthanum is used in camera lenses and hybrid car batteries. Cerium is vital for catalytic converters in cars, cleaning exhaust emissions, and also used in glass polishing. Europium and terbium are crucial for the vibrant colors in flat-screen televisions and LED lighting. From fiber optic cables to advanced medical imaging (like MRI machines), and from sophisticated defense systems to everyday consumer electronics, rare earths are woven into the fabric of technological progress. Without them, many of the innovations we take for granted would be impossible, or at least far less efficient and powerful.
For decades, China has meticulously cultivated a near-monopoly over the rare earth industry, dominating not only mining but also the complex and environmentally challenging processing and refining stages. As of 2024, China accounts for approximately 60% of global rare earth mining and an astounding 90% of processing capacity. This dominance was sharply highlighted in April 2025, when China’s Ministry of Commerce imposed new export restrictions on seven critical rare earth elements, including those essential for high-strength magnets. These restrictions, requiring special export licenses, are widely interpreted as a calculated response to escalating trade tensions, particularly with the United States, and a potent lever in the ongoing economic rivalry. This move echoed China’s temporary ban on rare earth exports to Japan in 2010, which sent prices soaring and demonstrated Beijing’s willingness to leverage its control over these materials.
In the face of China’s tightening grip, nations are aggressively pushing for self-reliance and diversified supply chains. India, for instance, is vigorously pursuing its National Critical Mineral Mission, backed by a substantial budget of approximately $4.1 billion USD. India’s Mines Ministry Joint Secretary, Dinesh Mahur, recently indicated that an incentive scheme for mineral recycling is nearing completion, aiming to reduce dependence on primary extraction. Furthermore, India is actively forging new international partnerships, including discussions with Central Asian nations for joint exploration of critical minerals and a significant agreement with the U.S. in October 2024 to strengthen critical mineral supply chain cooperation.
The United States, heavily reliant on Chinese rare earths for its defense, electric vehicle, and technology sectors, views this dependence as a significant vulnerability. The U.S. Department of Defense has set an ambitious target for defense contractors to use non-Chinese rare earth magnets in military applications by 2027. Efforts to diversify supply chains include reactivating domestic mines, such as the Mountain Pass mine in California, and investing in new projects in allied nations like Australia and Canada. In February 2025, the U.S. and India launched the TRUST (Transforming the Relationship Utilizing Strategic Technology) initiative for cooperation in rare earths. The Minerals Security Partnership (MSP), formed in 2023 with several countries, also focuses on securing critical mineral supply chains.
The conflict in Ukraine has also drawn attention to its mineral potential. While some reports, notably during the Trump administration, have highlighted Ukraine’s rare earth deposits, it is important to note that many of these are largely unexploited and their economic viability for extraction remains to be fully assessed. Ukraine does possess significant reserves of various critical minerals, including lithium and graphite, and some rare earth deposits, but these are largely undeveloped and a substantial portion lies in areas currently under Russian occupation or in conflict zones. The ongoing war significantly complicates any immediate development of these resources. Russia’s actions in Ukraine underscore the broader geopolitical struggle for resource control, adding another complex layer to the global rare earth equation, regardless of the precise scale of Ukraine’s rare earth reserves.
For the average consumer, these geopolitical maneuvers translate directly into potential impacts on daily life. Disruptions in rare earth supply chains can lead to higher manufacturing costs for electronic components, meaning that popular gadgets like smartphones, laptops, and electric vehicles could become more expensive. Supply shortages could also lead to production delays, longer wait times for new products, or even a lack of availability for certain high-tech items. Beyond immediate costs, geopolitical tensions over rare earths highlight the fragility of global supply chains and the need for greater resilience. This drives efforts towards more recycling of electronic waste, which contains recoverable rare earths, and the search for alternative materials to reduce dependence on these specific elements, potentially influencing the design and performance of future consumer goods. The ongoing scramble directly impacts the affordability and accessibility of the technologies that define our modern existence.
These developments signal a profound shift in global resource geopolitics. China’s strategic use of export controls, while providing immediate leverage, risks accelerating global efforts to diversify supply, potentially eroding its long-term market dominance. India’s aggressive push for self-reliance and international partnerships positions it to become a more resilient player, reducing its vulnerability to external shocks. The United States and Western nations are prioritizing domestic production and forging alliances to secure their technological and defense needs, requiring substantial investment. For other resource-rich nations like Australia, Canada, and Central Asian countries, this competition presents significant opportunities for economic growth and enhanced geopolitical influence. The intensifying competition for rare earth elements is a defining feature of contemporary geopolitics, as the ability to secure and control these materials becomes a fundamental determinant of national power, economic resilience, and a key factor shaping future international relations.
