Strategic Integration or Strategic Entrapment?
In 2025, South Asia’s geopolitical terrain witnessed a striking realignment as China and Pakistan formalized Afghanistan’s entry into the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Once viewed as a hypothetical extension, this trilateral integration has rapidly materialized into official policy—anchored by diplomacy, mutual strategic interests, and regional realignments. But beneath the veneer of cooperation lies a complex matrix of unresolved tensions, particularly from India’s perspective, and growing skepticism over the initiative’s long-term viability.
How Afghanistan Got Pulled In
Afghanistan’s integration into CPEC didn’t happen overnight. Years of informal signaling gave way to concrete diplomatic moves in early 2025, driven by converging motives in Beijing, Islamabad, and Kabul.
- Economic Imperative: China views Afghanistan as a crucial land bridge connecting CPEC to Central Asia’s untapped markets and rare earth reserves—vital for its green energy transition.
- Security Calculus: Pakistan sees stabilizing its western border through economic engagement as key to curbing cross-border militancy, particularly from the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
- Taliban’s Economic Survival: Facing isolation, Western sanctions, and an economic collapse, the Taliban saw CPEC as a lifeline—offering legitimacy, jobs, and investment bypassing the Western aid architecture.
2025: The Year of Accelerated Diplomacy
February 2025: Ministerial Engagements
- Pakistan’s Commerce Minister Gohar Ejaz traveled to Kabul to streamline customs at key borders like Torkham and Chaman and explore energy and industrial cooperation.
- Afghan Acting Commerce Minister Nooruddin Azizi quickly reciprocated with a visit to Islamabad, finalizing access protocols for Afghan goods through Gwadar and Karachi ports. Chinese-backed mining and energy proposals were also greenlit.
May 2025: The Beijing Trilateral Summit
In a landmark summit hosted by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Pakistan’s Ishaq Dar and Afghanistan’s Amir Khan Muttaqi signed three pivotal agreements:
- Formal CPEC Extension: Afghanistan was officially included in CPEC, with priority projects like the Kabul–Peshawar motorway and CASA-1000 energy corridor receiving funding.
- Diplomatic Restoration: Pakistan and Afghanistan agreed to restore ambassadorial-level relations, thawing tensions since 2023.
- Security Compact: The Taliban pledged to prevent Afghan territory from being used for attacks on neighboring countries—assuaging Chinese and Pakistani concerns over TTP and ETIM.
| Date | Event | Primary Agreement | Strategic Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2025 | Ejaz–Azizi Exchange | Trade facilitation, Afghan access to Gwadar | Operationalizes Afghan-CPEC connectivity |
| May 2025 | Beijing Trilateral Summit | Formal CPEC inclusion, Diplomatic normalization | Institutionalizes Afghanistan’s role |
| May 2025 | Wang–Muttaqi Bilateral | Reconstruction aid, Xinjiang security cooperation | Adds economic legitimacy to Taliban regime |
Strategic Drivers Behind the Surge
- Pakistan’s Internal Pressure: With tensions on its eastern border with India consuming resources, Islamabad focused on securing its western frontier via economic engagement. The Taliban’s post-deal crackdown on TTP showed early signs of success.
- China’s Diplomatic Opening: With the U.S. role in Afghanistan diminished, Beijing positioned itself as the region’s new broker, leveraging economic tools to achieve security aims.
- Taliban’s Desperation: With aid dried up and refugees returning in large numbers, the Taliban embraced CPEC to prevent complete economic collapse and gain geopolitical recognition.
India’s Concerns: Strategic Encirclement and Sovereignty Violations
India remains deeply critical of the trilateral CPEC expansion. Its core objections include:
- Violation of Sovereignty: CPEC’s route continues through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), which India considers an illegal occupation. The Afghan extension reinforces that corridor, further challenging India’s territorial claims.
- Geopolitical Encirclement: With Afghanistan now drawn into the China-Pakistan fold, New Delhi fears a strategic squeeze that undermines its regional influence in both West and Central Asia.
- Erosion of Regional Alternatives: The expansion sidelines India’s investments in Chabahar Port and the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC), which were meant to provide Afghanistan a non-Pakistani trade outlet.
- Terror Safe Havens Unresolved: Despite security assurances from the Taliban, India remains unconvinced that anti-India groups (like LeT and JeM) will be effectively curbed in the new arrangement.
Cracks in the Foundation: Doubts Over Promised Gains
While CPEC’s Afghan integration is heralded as a win-win, analysts caution against uncritical optimism.
1. Development vs. Dependency
Afghanistan’s lack of capacity to operate or maintain large infrastructure raises the risk of white elephant projects. Like parts of CPEC in Pakistan, Afghan ventures may remain incomplete or benefit foreign contractors more than local populations.
2. Debt Diplomacy Concerns
With no real revenue streams or credit ratings, Afghanistan risks falling into a debt trap. China’s concessional loans may lead to long-term resource concessions—especially in lithium and copper mining—that echo exploitative patterns seen in Africa or Sri Lanka.
3. Insecure Terrain
The Taliban’s hold remains contested, and ISIS-K attacks on Chinese workers in Pakistan and Afghanistan have already occurred. CPEC’s extension may make Chinese assets even more attractive targets, worsening regional volatility.
4. Internal Taliban Divisions
While Kabul-based officials pursue foreign investment, hardliners in Kandahar remain deeply suspicious of Chinese involvement. Future resistance from within the Taliban could derail projects midstream.
5. Strategic Imbalance
Skeptics argue this is not a partnership of equals. China secures resources and stability near Xinjiang; Pakistan gains strategic depth. Afghanistan, by contrast, has little bargaining power and may become an economic appendage in a corridor it does not control.
The Road Ahead: CPEC 2.0 or Strategic Mirage?
The upcoming 14th Joint Cooperation Committee (JCC) meeting in July 2025 will codify Afghanistan’s role in CPEC, focusing on:
- Energy Transit: Linking Afghan transmission lines to CPEC’s hydropower grid to export electricity to Central Asia.
- Subnational Diplomacy: Extending sister-city relationships (e.g., Peshawar–Urumqi, Abbottabad–Kashgar) to Afghan cities like Herat or Jalalabad.
- Conflict Containment: China may assume a quasi-mediator role to prevent India–Pakistan hostilities from spilling over and jeopardizing its investments.
Yet as one Pakistani official candidly noted, “Things have to go through Pakistan.” That sentiment, while affirming Islamabad’s centrality, also underscores the fragility of a trilateral framework dependent on mutual trust in a deeply unstable region.
Diplomatic Gamble in High-Risk Zone
The 2025 diplomacy that pulled Afghanistan into CPEC marks a dramatic evolution—from bilateral ambition to trilateral experiment. If successful, it could transform Afghanistan from a war-torn state into a regional connector. But the journey ahead is strewn with unresolved tensions, security flashpoints, and unanswered questions about sovereignty, debt, and legitimacy.
From India’s standpoint, the project resembles less a corridor of peace than a corridor of strategic encroachment. And for many observers, the true test of this alliance will not be in its signatures—but in its sustainability.
