At a campaign rally on Friday, former President Donald Trump announced he would impose a 10 % tariff on all imports from the BRICS grouping if re‑elected, framing the move as a defence of American workers and the U.S. dollar. He further touted his existing “reciprocal tariffs” policy, which levies a universal 10 % duty on most imports under emergency trade powers enacted this spring.
“There’s a little group called BRICS that’s fading out fast. If they ever really form in a meaningful way, it will end very quickly,” Trump declared. “They’ve been disrespecting our workers for too long—my tariffs will bring back jobs and defend our currency.”
Why It Matters
- A Powerful Bloc: BRICS originally comprised Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa; it has expanded since 2024 to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, and most recently Indonesia in January 2025. Together, these ten nations represent roughly 45 % of the world’s population and about 35 % of global GDP (PPP).
- Supply‑Chain Shock: A sudden tariff on such a large manufacturing and energy cohort could severely disrupt cross‑border supply chains—particularly in electronics (China, India), agriculture (Brazil), and oil and gas (UAE, Russia, Saudi Arabia).
- Risk of Retaliation: Past U.S. tariff actions prompted swift counter‑measures. Equity funds saw $11.75 billion in weekly outflows as investors reacted to rising trade‑war risks and inflationary fears.
- Consumer Impact: An uptick in import levies typically passes through to consumer prices. Fitch Ratings now projects the effective U.S. tariff rate could climb to 19.4 % on average—levels not seen since the 1930s.
Market & Diplomatic Reactions
- Currency Moves: The euro dipped to a three‑week low of $1.1649, weighed down by uncertainties over escalating U.S. trade measures.
- BRICS Leaders Push Back: Brazilian President Lula da Silva dismissed the threat, emphasizing the bloc’s pursuit of diversified trade ties and alternatives to the U.S. dollar.
- Allied Concerns: U.S. trading partners—from Europe to Asia—have expressed unease over the broad application of “America First” tariffs, warning of global growth headwinds.
Context & Outlook
Trump’s announcement builds on his April 2 “Liberation Day” proclamation, which instituted a universal 10 % tariff on imports from nearly all countries under emergency powers, alongside higher “reciprocal” rates for about 57 trading partners. He also plans 50 % duties on Brazilian goods beginning in August, pending investigations into Brazil’s trade practices.
While campaign rhetoric does not guarantee policy enactment, the pledge underscores the potential for dramatic shifts in U.S. trade strategy should Trump win in November. BRICS nations have yet to respond formally to the rally threat, but the episode highlights intensifying tensions between Washington and emerging economic powers—and the global stakes of the 2024 U.S. election.
