The Scramble for Africa 2.0
Across Africa’s Sahel region, a geopolitical revolution is unfolding. French flags are lowered, Russian military convoys roll through desert towns, and state media broadcasts anti-Western vitriol. This transformation is no accident—it is the product of a coordinated Russian strategy to exploit security vacuums, weaponize historical grievances, and position Moscow as the continent’s indispensable partner. As Western influence recedes, Russia is executing a multi-dimensional campaign to redraw Africa’s alliances.
Military Domination: Mercenaries, Coups, and Combat
- Wagner to Africa Corps: The Wagner Group, now rebranded as “Africa Corps,” serves as Russia’s primary military spearhead. These mercenaries offer no-strings-attached security assistance to regimes facing insurgencies or isolation, particularly after military coups. In Mali, Wagner secured mining concessions while conducting counterterrorism operations that resulted in the summary execution of 300 civilians in Moura in 2022.
- Expansion Blueprint: Russia’s model begins with security agreements, followed by resource exploitation. After seizing power in 2021, Mali’s junta expelled French forces and welcomed Wagner—a pattern repeated in Burkina Faso (2022) and Niger (2023). Media mentions of Russia in these countries surged between 2020–2023, signaling deepening ties.
- Coastal Ambitions: Russia is now targeting Atlantic access. In Equatorial Guinea, 200 Russian troops deployed in late 2024 to protect President Obiang’s regime, securing oil wealth and a strategic Gulf of Guinea foothold. Similar overtures are underway in Mauritania and Guinea 1013.
Russian Military Footprint in Key African Countries
| Country | Entry Year | Troop Estimate | Key Resources Accessed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mali | 2021 | 1,000+ | Gold, uranium |
| CAR | 2018 | 1,000+ | Diamonds, timber |
| Burkina Faso | 2022 | 500+ | Gold |
| Equatorial Guinea | 2024 | 200 | Oil |
Political Warfare: Anti-Colonial Rhetoric and Institutional Sabotage
- Memory Diplomacy: Russia frames Western powers as neo-colonial exploiters while recasting Soviet support for independence movements as proof of Moscow’s anti-imperialist credentials. Foreign Minister Lavrov declared France the root of instability in New Caledonia, amplifying Azerbaijani disinformation that fueled riots in 2024.
- Alliance of Sahel States (AES): Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger formed the AES in 2024—a Russian-backed bloc that replaced Western-aligned ECOWAS. The alliance plans a 5,000-troop joint force, effectively institutionalizing Russian security dominance. Togo now seeks membership, signaling the bloc’s expansion.
- Diplomatic Onslaught: Russia will open seven new embassies in Africa by 2026, including in Gambia and Sierra Leone. The April 2025 “Russia-Africa: What’s Next?” Forum in Moscow focused on youth engagement, cultivating future pro-Russian elites.
Economic Leverage: Resource Extraction and Sanctions Evasion
- Resource-for-Security Barter: Russia avoids direct investment but extracts high-value minerals to fund operations. In Sudan, Wagner smuggled gold via airfields to bypass sanctions; in CAR, it controls diamond mines. These activities generate $2.5 billion annually, financing operations in Ukraine and Africa.
- Failed Economic Promises: Despite summits pledging energy and infrastructure partnerships, Russia’s economic presence remains negligible. Key projects collapsed:
- A $3 billion platinum mine in Zimbabwe (2014)
- Nuclear plants in South Africa and Burkina Faso
- A $4 billion oil refinery in Uganda.
Russia accounts for just 2% of South Africa’s trade—compared to 35% for Western states.
Information Warfare: Manufacturing Consent
- Disinformation “On an Industrial Scale”: Russia-linked campaigns in Africa quadrupled between 2022–2024. West Africa became the primary target, absorbing 40% of all operations. Coordinated networks spread anti-French content, such as calls to boycott Radio France Internationale in Mali—which succeeded in getting it banned in 2022.
- Media Capture: Outlets like Cameroon’s Afrique Média parrot Kremlin narratives. A 2022 viral video depicted a Russian mercenary “exposing” U.S. and French flags behind an ISIS banner, reinforcing the West-terrorism linkage.
- Cultural Influence: The Gallup poll surge in Mali and Burkina Faso correlates 0.87–0.92 with Russian engagement—Public Approval of Russian Leadership has increased significantly in short period of time-proof that information operations sway public opinion where governance is weak.
Challenges and Western Missteps
- Russian Vulnerabilities:
- Military defeats like the July 2024 ambush in Mali, where Tuareg rebels killed dozens of mercenaries.
- Recruitment shortages for Africa Corps after Prigozhin’s death.
- Syria’s collapse disrupted supply routes.
- Western Self-Sabotage:
- France’s failed Operation Barkhane fueled resentment.
- U.S. aid freezes and potential AFRICOM downgrading created vacuums.
- Section 7008 sanctions barred assistance to juntas, pushing them toward Moscow.
Containment or Concession?
Russia’s Africa playbook is opportunistic but effective. By exploiting security gaps and leveraging anti-Western grievances, Moscow has turned the Sahel into a strategic beachhead. The West’s response—isolation or sanctions—only accelerates this shift.
As Lavrov declared at the 2024 Russia-Africa Forum, Moscow provides “total support” to African friends. Behind this rhetoric lies a cold reality: Russia is not building nations—it is building a sanctions-proof empire at the West’s expense. Africa’s “second scramble” will define 21st-century power dynamics, and Moscow is winning.
